diff --git a/extreme_fit/estimator/margin_estimator/abstract_margin_estimator.py b/extreme_fit/estimator/margin_estimator/abstract_margin_estimator.py
index d739cadca69b95594ea2078dbef459a9cbd81d0f..0b18e721b37a94607530580d23638de78c315887 100644
--- a/extreme_fit/estimator/margin_estimator/abstract_margin_estimator.py
+++ b/extreme_fit/estimator/margin_estimator/abstract_margin_estimator.py
@@ -74,6 +74,8 @@ class LinearMarginEstimator(AbstractMarginEstimator):
npt.assert_almost_equal(self.result_from_model_fit.aic, aic, decimal=5)
return aic
+ def n(self, split=Split.all):
+ return len(self.dataset.maxima_gev(split=split))
+
def bic(self, split=Split.all):
- n = len(self.dataset.maxima_gev(split=split))
- return np.log(n) * self.margin_model.nb_params + 2 * self.nllh(split=split)
+ return np.log(self.n(split=split)) * self.margin_model.nb_params + 2 * self.nllh(split=split)
diff --git a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/altitudes_studies.py b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/altitudes_studies.py
index 545bac0eed7288a0e28b1b7e27c26c8fcee18d0f..6f87bf5def6e909f68c87c9ecc03e7c3697ffd15 100644
--- a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/altitudes_studies.py
+++ b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/altitudes_studies.py
@@ -132,7 +132,8 @@ class AltitudesStudies(object):
ax.xaxis.set_ticks(x[1::10])
ax.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=13)
ax.legend()
- plot_name = 'Annual maxima of {} in {}'.format(SCM_STUDY_CLASS_TO_ABBREVIATION[self.study_class], massif_name)
+ plot_name = 'Annual maxima of {} in {}'.format(SCM_STUDY_CLASS_TO_ABBREVIATION[self.study_class],
+ massif_name.replace('_', ' '))
ax.set_ylabel('{} ({})'.format(plot_name, self.study.variable_unit), fontsize=15)
ax.set_xlabel('years', fontsize=15)
self.show_or_save_to_file(plot_name=plot_name, show=show)
@@ -148,6 +149,8 @@ class AltitudesStudies(object):
if change is True or change is None:
moment += ' change (between two block of 30 years) for'
moment += 'mean' if not std else 'std'
+ if change is False:
+ moment += ' (for the 60 years of data)'
plot_name = '{} of annual maxima of {}'.format(moment, SCM_STUDY_CLASS_TO_ABBREVIATION[self.study_class])
ax.set_ylabel('{} ({})'.format(plot_name, self.study.variable_unit), fontsize=15)
ax.set_xlabel('altitudes', fontsize=15)
diff --git a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/main_altitudes_studies.py b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/main_altitudes_studies.py
index ff604f449a03122782fb58ebdb5a63a3b5794ac7..99e903a52162e9bd1447f647fbd9826a97cb3756 100644
--- a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/main_altitudes_studies.py
+++ b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/main_altitudes_studies.py
@@ -1,4 +1,8 @@
import matplotlib as mpl
+import numpy as np
+
+from projects.altitude_spatial_model.altitudes_fit.one_fold_analysis.one_fold_fit import OneFoldFit
+
mpl.rcParams['text.usetex'] = True
mpl.rcParams['text.latex.preamble'] = [r'\usepackage{amsmath}']
@@ -13,10 +17,31 @@ from projects.altitude_spatial_model.altitudes_fit.one_fold_analysis.altitudes_s
def plot_altitudinal_fit(studies, massif_names=None):
+ model_classes = ALTITUDINAL_MODELS
visualizer = AltitudesStudiesVisualizerForNonStationaryModels(studies=studies,
- model_classes=ALTITUDINAL_MODELS,
+ model_classes=model_classes,
massif_names=massif_names,
show=False)
+ # Plot the results for the model that minimizes the individual aic
+ visualizer.plot_moments()
+ visualizer.plot_shape_map()
+
+ # Compute the mean AIC for each model_class
+ OneFoldFit.best_estimator_minimizes_mean_aic = True
+ model_class_to_aic_scores = {model_class: [] for model_class in model_classes}
+ for one_fold_fit in visualizer.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit.values():
+ for model_class, estimator in one_fold_fit.model_class_to_estimator_with_finite_aic.items():
+ print(estimator.n())
+ aic_score_normalized = estimator.aic() / estimator.n()
+ model_class_to_aic_scores[model_class].append(aic_score_normalized)
+ model_class_to_mean_aic_score = {model_class: np.array(aic_scores).mean()
+ for model_class, aic_scores in model_class_to_aic_scores.items()}
+ sorted_model_class = sorted(model_classes, key=lambda m: model_class_to_mean_aic_score[m])
+ best_model_class_for_mean_aic = sorted_model_class[0]
+ for one_fold_fit in visualizer.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit.values():
+ one_fold_fit.best_estimator_class_for_mean_aic = best_model_class_for_mean_aic
+
+ # Plot the results for the model that minimizes the mean aic
visualizer.plot_moments()
visualizer.plot_shape_map()
@@ -34,7 +59,7 @@ def plot_moments(studies, massif_names=None):
def main():
altitudes = [900, 1200, 1500, 1800, 2100, 2400, 2700, 3000][4:7]
altitudes = [900, 1200, 1500, 1800, 2100, 2400, 2700, 3000][:]
- # altitudes = [900, 1200, 1500, 1800, 2100, 2400, 2700, 3000, 3300, 3600, 3900]
+ altitudes = [900, 1200, 1500, 1800, 2100, 2400, 2700, 3000, 3300, 3600, 3900]
study_classes = [SafranSnowfall1Day, SafranSnowfall3Days, SafranSnowfall5Days, SafranSnowfall7Days][:2]
study_classes = [SafranPrecipitation1Day, SafranPrecipitation3Days, SafranPrecipitation5Days,
SafranPrecipitation7Days][:]
diff --git a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/altitudes_studies_visualizer_for_non_stationary_models.py b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/altitudes_studies_visualizer_for_non_stationary_models.py
index bad9c767bd128604593375f441f12dd97526f17c..e378f3841fcbd47e5fb73cf88aece49fee5a8b8a 100644
--- a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/altitudes_studies_visualizer_for_non_stationary_models.py
+++ b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/altitudes_studies_visualizer_for_non_stationary_models.py
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ class AltitudesStudiesVisualizerForNonStationaryModels(StudyVisualizer):
def plot_moments(self):
for method_name in ['moment', 'changes_in_the_moment', 'relative_changes_in_the_moment']:
- for order in [1, 2]:
+ for order in [1, 2, None]:
self.plot_general(method_name, order)
def plot_general(self, method_name, order):
@@ -47,14 +47,16 @@ class AltitudesStudiesVisualizerForNonStationaryModels(StudyVisualizer):
massif_altitudes = self.studies.massif_name_to_altitudes[massif_name]
ind = (min(massif_altitudes) <= altitudes_plot) & (altitudes_plot <= max(massif_altitudes))
massif_altitudes_plot = altitudes_plot[ind]
- old_fold_fit = self.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit[massif_name]
- values = old_fold_fit.__getattribute__(method_name)(massif_altitudes_plot, order=order)
- plot_against_altitude(massif_altitudes_plot, ax, massif_id, massif_name, values)
+ one_fold_fit = self.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit[massif_name]
+ if one_fold_fit.best_estimator_has_finite_aic:
+ values = one_fold_fit.__getattribute__(method_name)(massif_altitudes_plot, order=order)
+ plot_against_altitude(massif_altitudes_plot, ax, massif_id, massif_name, values)
# Plot settings
ax.legend(prop={'size': 7}, ncol=3)
moment = ' '.join(method_name.split('_'))
- moment = moment.replace('moment', 'mean' if order == 1 else 'std')
- plot_name = '{} annual maxima of {}'.format(moment, SCM_STUDY_CLASS_TO_ABBREVIATION[self.studies.study_class])
+ moment = moment.replace('moment', '{} in 2019'.format(OneFoldFit.get_moment_str(order=order)))
+ plot_name = '{}/Model {} annual maxima of {}'.format(OneFoldFit.folder_for_plots, moment,
+ SCM_STUDY_CLASS_TO_ABBREVIATION[self.studies.study_class])
ax.set_ylabel('{} ({})'.format(plot_name, self.study.variable_unit), fontsize=15)
ax.set_xlabel('altitudes', fontsize=15)
# lim_down, lim_up = ax.get_ylim()
@@ -66,13 +68,16 @@ class AltitudesStudiesVisualizerForNonStationaryModels(StudyVisualizer):
def plot_abstract_fast(self, massif_name_to_value, label, graduation=10.0, cmap=plt.cm.coolwarm, add_x_label=True,
negative_and_positive_values=True, massif_name_to_text=None):
- super().plot_abstract(massif_name_to_value, label, label, self.fit_method, graduation, cmap, add_x_label,
- negative_and_positive_values, massif_name_to_text)
+ plot_name = '{}/{}'.format(OneFoldFit.folder_for_plots, label)
+ self.plot_map(cmap, self.fit_method, graduation, label, massif_name_to_value, plot_name, add_x_label,
+ negative_and_positive_values,
+ massif_name_to_text)
@property
def massif_name_to_shape(self):
return {massif_name: one_fold_fit.best_shape
- for massif_name, one_fold_fit in self.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit.items()}
+ for massif_name, one_fold_fit in self.massif_name_to_one_fold_fit.items()
+ if one_fold_fit.best_estimator_has_finite_aic}
@property
def massif_name_to_name(self):
diff --git a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/one_fold_fit.py b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/one_fold_fit.py
index cb90188be84d5bfecfe84f268be48fa1597b5bd5..113e132915323889311eb73571f35a1674a90d61 100644
--- a/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/one_fold_fit.py
+++ b/projects/altitude_spatial_model/altitudes_fit/one_fold_analysis/one_fold_fit.py
@@ -7,10 +7,12 @@ from scipy.stats import chi2
from extreme_fit.estimator.margin_estimator.utils import fitted_linear_margin_estimator_short
from extreme_fit.model.margin_model.polynomial_margin_model.altitudinal_models import StationaryAltitudinal
from extreme_fit.model.margin_model.utils import MarginFitMethod
+from root_utils import classproperty
class OneFoldFit(object):
SIGNIFICANCE_LEVEL = 0.05
+ best_estimator_minimizes_mean_aic = False
def __init__(self, massif_name, dataset, models_classes, fit_method=MarginFitMethod.extremes_fevd_mle):
self.massif_name = massif_name
@@ -25,12 +27,30 @@ class OneFoldFit(object):
dataset=self.dataset,
fit_method=self.fit_method)
+ # Best estimator definition
+ self.best_estimator_class_for_mean_aic = None
+
+ @classproperty
+ def folder_for_plots(cls):
+ return 'Mean aic' if cls.best_estimator_minimizes_mean_aic else 'Individual aic'
+
+ @classmethod
+ def get_moment_str(cls, order):
+ if order == 1:
+ return 'Mean'
+ elif order == 2:
+ return 'Std'
+ elif order is None:
+ return 'Return level'
+
def get_moment(self, altitude, year, order=1):
gev_params = self.get_gev_params(altitude, year)
if order == 1:
return gev_params.mean
elif order == 2:
return gev_params.std
+ elif order is None:
+ return gev_params.return_level(return_period=2019)
else:
raise NotImplementedError
@@ -79,13 +99,29 @@ class OneFoldFit(object):
key=lambda e: e.aic())
return sorted_estimators_with_finite_aic
+ @property
+ def model_class_to_estimator_with_finite_aic(self):
+ return {type(estimator.margin_model): estimator for estimator in self.sorted_estimators_with_finite_aic}
+
@cached_property
+ def set_estimators_with_finite_aic(self):
+ return set(self.sorted_estimators_with_finite_aic)
+
+ @property
def best_estimator(self):
- return self.sorted_estimators_with_finite_aic[0]
+ if self.best_estimator_minimizes_mean_aic and self.best_estimator_class_for_mean_aic is not None:
+ return self.model_class_to_estimator[self.best_estimator_class_for_mean_aic]
+ else:
+ return self.sorted_estimators_with_finite_aic[0]
+
+ @property
+ def best_estimator_has_finite_aic(self):
+ return self.best_estimator in self.set_estimators_with_finite_aic
@property
def best_shape(self):
- return self.get_gev_params(1000, year=2019).shape
+ # We take any altitude (altitude=1000 for instance) as the shape is constant w.r.t the altitude
+ return self.get_gev_params(altitude=1000, year=2019).shape
@property
def best_function_from_fit(self):