Display an ensemble forecast of reservoir volume time series
VGEST computes reservoir volume time series with the most perfect management from a natural flow time series database. Is it possible to use these time series in order to display an ensemble forecast of future volumes in the reservoir based on the analog method usually used on precipitation forecast (See Xavier et Goswami, 2007, and Ben Daoud et al. 2016)?
References
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Ben Daoud, A., Sauquet, E., Bontron, G., Obled, C., Lang, M., 2016. Daily quantitative precipitation forecasts based on the analogue method: Improvements and application to a French large river basin. Atmospheric Research 169, 147–159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.09.015
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Xavier, P.K., Goswami, B.N., 2007. An Analog Method for Real-Time Forecasting of Summer Monsoon Subseasonal Variability. Mon. Wea. Rev. 135, 4149–4160. https://doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1854.1